Prisoner's Dilemma in Copenhagen

The climate change talks in Copenhagen will change the way some governments decide to handle carbon emissions. The challenge isn't convincing those in attendance of how real climate change is, despite the climate-gate email saga, the science is pretty much established as fact. The problem will be convincing the developing world (China and India) to adopt the same changes and set limits on their economic development. The prisoner's dilemma is this:




Everyone agrees to a standard, indeed there is consensus that most think it's a commendable idea.

A coalition of countries is formed, but one country (perhaps feeling the need to improve economic conditions) soon realize there is greater economic gains to be had in the short-run if it scales back the implemented standard - giving that country a slight edge over those who are still coordinating efforts to lower carbon emissions. However, once one country pulls back, the rest are likely to follow suit. The worst case scenario is that everyone reverts to pre-Copenhagen standards. So instead of having a regulated emission output throughout the world, some countries will have no economic incentive to follow any protocol.